TWE
TREA WINE FPO [TWE]
Consumer Defensive · ASX Small Cap
$3.4150 -3.5%
Updated 26 Mar 2026 · Scores refresh every scan
Score Breakdown
Technical26
Catalyst93
Sentiment50
Fundamental90
Momentum29
Risk Gate32
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Active Signals
Bullish Signals
- RSI is looking oversold — historically a spot where stocks tend to bounce
- MACD momentum is losing steam
- Stochastic is deep in oversold territory — bounce conditions forming
- Volume surging at 3.0x normal while price falls — heavy selling pressure
- Drifting lower — down 6.2% over the last 5 days
- Lagging the Small Ords index — relative strength of 0.84, underperforming its peers
- Volatility is contracting — like a spring being compressed, breakouts often follow
- Cash positive / operating cashflow positive
- Low P/S ratio (1.0x)
- Revenue in sharp decline (-17%)
- EPS estimates revised upward (+10pts)
- Near 52-week low (0% of range)
- New substantial holder(s) (2)
- Substantial holder(s) ceased (2)
- Very high short interest (11.9%)
- Short covering detected (-3.6% in 5d)
- CANSLIM A: Moderate annual earnings growth (18%)
- CANSLIM I: Institutional ownership (53%)
- Sentiment is mixed — no strong consensus either way
- Poor risk-adjusted returns — Sharpe of -2.8 means lots of volatility for not much reward
- Altman Z-Score distress zone (1.42 < 1.81, low-confidence approx)
- Days to cover very high (11.2)
- RBA hiking (-3pts)
Risk Signals
- Trading below both moving averages — the trend is working against this one
- Broke below 20-day support — that's a level the market was defending, and it just gave way
- Below the 200-day average — the long-term trend is still working against it
- Piotroski F-Score weak (3/9, low-confidence approx)
- Negative profit margins (-16%)
- Not enough chatter to gauge sentiment — defaulting to neutral
- Long-term momentum is negative — down 45% over the past year
- Revenue declining at -17% — the top line is shrinking
- The bigger volume days are the down days — volume-weighted momentum is negative (-0.84%/day)
- Overseas neutral (-1pts, S&P500 neutral, VIX 25)
- Fading catalyst: strong catalyst but declining momentum
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Recent Catalysts
NONE Change in substantial holding
HIGH Ceasing to be a substantial holder
HIGH Becoming a substantial holder
HIGH Ceasing to be a substantial holder
Announcement tone +3pts
Recent ASX Announcements
| 2026-03-25 | Change in substantial holding |
| 2026-03-24 | Ceasing to be a substantial holder |
| 2026-03-24 | Becoming a substantial holder |
| 2026-03-23 | Ceasing to be a substantial holder |
| 2026-03-16 | Becoming a substantial holder |
Key Metrics
$2.8B
Market Cap
8.6M
Avg Volume
3.0x
Vol Ratio
$3.40 — $10.15
52-Week Range
11.9%
Short Interest
N/A
Cash Runway
-9.9%
ROE
-15.9%
Profit Margin
CANSLIM Analysis
| Factor | Rating | Detail | |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | Current EPS | fail | EPS Growth: 0% |
| A | Annual Earnings | weak | CAGR: 18% |
| N | New Highs / Catalysts | neutral | |
| S | Supply & Demand | neutral | Float: 89% |
| L | Leader vs Laggard | laggard | RS: -8 |
| I | Institutional Sponsorship | pass | Inst: 53% |
| M | Market Direction | neutral | Neutral |
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Ranked #38 of 46 · Sector avg: 48
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